Jeff Buchbinder | Chief Equity Strategist

Last Updated: November 04, 2026

Additional content provided by Adam Turnquist, Chief Cross-Asset Strategist.

The Setup

The votes have been cast. While control of the House and Senate has been decided, now we wait for the final tallies (and celebrate the end of the political ads — at least for another 20 months or so). We’re not political strategists, but policy does move markets, so it’s important to pay attention.

Before we get into potential policy implications of the midterms and the relationships between stocks and elections, our thinking on this election cycle — which has been correct at least up until now — is that the setup was not one for as much market volatility as we’ve endured historically (the average pre-midterms drawdown in the S&P 500 has been 17% and this year we’ve gotten 9%). The strong performance of the Democrats yesterday introduced some volatility in futures trading overnight, but markets calmed on the clarity this morning.

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